Money Hater

As I was getting chips from my box at Commerce, my phone buzzes telling me I have a new text message:

“That jackass who won LAPC is here.”

First place in that event was $1,686,760.

I had been wondering when this guy was going to show up and begin the long, slow but steady process of blowing everything that he won by interpreting his tournament win as confirmation that he should be a professional poker player, instead of the lightning-in-a-bottle, dumb luck event that it actually was. Even the best, most successful and respected tournament professionals will be quick to concede that one needs to get extremely lucky to win a poker tournament, and that making any long term projections based on the results of a single tournament is a fool’s errand.

I get my chips and walk out into the poker room to find that a must move 100/200 game is about to start, and The Champion will be playing in the game. I have never played limit hold’em with The Champion, but I suspect (as I do of anyone who has won a large no limit tournament and then plops down in a limit hold’em game) that he is simply horrible at limit. (The only time that this assumption did not prove to be staggeringly accurate was in the case of Gavin Griffin. He plays quite well, but 2008 player of the year John Phan is as bad as one can be.)

While we are waiting for our chips to arrive, The Champion opens up his little laptop. I notice that the wallpaper for his computer is the shot of him holding up his LAPC bracelet in front of that big pile of money. This sight not only cracks me up for the sheer absurdity of it, but it makes me feel even more confident in my assumption about his limit hold’em abilities.

“Hey, you’re the guy who won that tournament!. That’s great. Good job!”, I hear the voice of my buddy (and sender of the aforementioned text) say over my shoulder. To all but the most acutely trained of ears, this sounds like a genuine compliment. It has me fooled for a moment, but then I remember who I am dealing with. This guy greatly enjoys feeding the ego of anyone who desperately wants it fed, and it appears today that he has brought a big serving spoon.

The Champion blushes and then makes some joke about it actually being his twin or somesuch.

The game begins 6 handed. It doesn’t take long for the following to happen, although I cannot recall their true chronological order so I will simply list them:

-I give my buddy the eye that says, “Look at the wallpaper on his laptop.” He sees it, looks at me and grins a big, stupid grin.

-It becomes apparent that The Champion is a huge loser in most $100/$200 limit hold’em games.

-My buddy turns to me and while half-laughing/half-speaking says, “I would absolutely love to play with this guy every single day.” I am sure part of this is because he is bad at lhe, but another part is because every once in a while it will be time to get The Champion talking about his big tournament win. Such dialogues tickle my twisted friend pink.

My buddy gets moved to the main game, and not soon after The Champion and I tangle.

He opens the CO, I 3bet the SB with AQo, he calls.

Flop comes T63r

I bet, he calls.

Turn J bringing the 2nd heart.

I bet, he raises, I call intending to fold if the river is my father’s business card. Any other card and I will be calling.

River is a black 2.

I check, he checks.

I table my hand, he tables the K2 of hearts and points at the 2, I assume to help us see that he rivered a pair and chose not to bet. He put $800 into the pot when he had the worst hand, and $0 into the pot when he had the best hand. He was even going to put in another $200 on the river as a bluff if he didn’t make anything. Brilliant.

On the river, there are 44 cards that can come. If we assume I do not have a heart in my hand, The Champion will make a flush 9/44 times, a pair of 2s 3/44 times, a pair of kings 3/44 times (which is bad for him because I make a straight if a king comes) and 29/44 times his hand does not improve.

After the river he will have the best hand 12/44 times, but 3 of those 12 (when he makes a pair of 2s) he won’t even bet. He only bets if he makes a flush with one of the 9 hearts. (For the sake of simplicity, I am going to assume that he will check a river king because it completes the exact hand that he is trying to get to fold and now he actually has something and doesn’t need to bluff. I also am going to assume that I will check and call all rivers, even though I likely need to bet an ace and maybe a king or queen as well.)

So since I will never fold, his turn/river combination:

-wins him 2 bets 3/44 times (when a 2 comes) (+6 bets total)
-wins him 3 bets 9/44 times (when a heart comes)(+27 bets total)
-loses him 2 bets 3/44 times (when a king comes)(-6 bets total)
-loses him 3 bets 29/44 times (when his hand doesn’t improve)(-87 bets total)

This turn/river play wins 33 bets and loses 93 bets for a net of -60 bets in 44 hands.

60/44 = 1.36 bets.

Since a bet is $200, this turn/river combination costs The Champion $272 every time he does it.

$1,686,760/$272 = 6,201.32

He can play this bad 6,201 more times before he is broke.