Money Hater

Limit hold’em frustrates many inexperienced poker players because they feel that bluffing is impossible.  Since it is usually only one more bet to call, they feel that their opponent won’t fold, thus rendering bluffing futile.  This is undoubtedly true at the most pedestrian levels of the game when your opponents play very poorly, but once your opponents become more skilled, the true art of the game begins to show.

Better opponents try to maximize their profits.  This means not only betting and raising when they have a strong hand, it also means folding hands when they feel they are beat.  A bet saved is as good as a bet earned.  Because they will fold hands, they can be exploited.

I played a 100/200 hand at the Bellagio during the WSOP a few weeks ago that illustrates this rather well.

Player A is a professional poker player who I have some history with, but nothing excessive.  He plays well, and is clearly a winner in most 100/200 games.  Player B is a fish who is bad.

Player A raises UTG, 2 players fold, Player B calls, it folds to me in the BB and I call with Q4 of clubs.

The flop is J63r.  I check, Player A checks, Player B checks.

Player A has now made an error that could very well cost him this pot.  There is not a single hand that he should be checking on this flop.  Checking this flop with AQ or AK here is not a massive mistake, but it is a mistake that expert players don’t make and ultimately costs money.  I am surprised by his play, and begin to speculate on what he has.  It is not uncommon for players to check this flop with a big hand like JJJ or 666, but I think that this player is not on that level and will bet this flop with monsters.  So this leaves hands like big overcards that missed the flop (AQ, AK, KQ, KT) or some pairs that are scared of the J on the board, like TT-77.  I’m not sure at this point what he has, but my interest is piqued given his odd flop check.

The turn is a 7 putting two diamonds on the board.  J637dd.   I now have a gutshot with my nothing.  I cannot call a bet here, as the pot is tiny and I would need to be getting at least 8:1 to continue.  I do have the aggressor wedged between myself and a fish, and I also have the initiative.  If I bet, it is going to be pretty tough for Player A to call with Player B still to act behind him, even though Player B likely has nothing.  It is a horrible spot to be in and he created it by checking the flop.  So, I bet.  Player A now raises.  On the surface, this seems like a disaster because we may have as many 10 outs here.  We just got raised when a relative brick fell on the turn, by the guy who raised preflop and then checked the flop.

His line here does not add up.  I already dismissed the idea that he could have a monster here, so that leaves some middle pair that either (a) turned a set or (b) is raising for a free showdown, or possibly (but not likely) a really weirdly played AK-AQ.  The other player folds while all of this plays out in my mind.  I am getting 6.5:1 to call here with a gutshot and an overcard that may or may not be good.  This is not a good price.  So, I cannot draw profitably, but I am fairly confident that he has a hand that he is not crazy about, even though whatever it is it still has me beat.  I decide that I am going to make him fold his weak hand (that still beats my Q-high).  The question now becomes, what is the best way to do that?

This opponent is capable of reading my hand and will try to do so.  Given this, I decided that the best course of action was to take a line that made him think that I wanted him to call me and pay me off.  I thought about 3betting the turn, but quickly dismissed it as that is a very obvious “I either have everything or nothing” line that many online players and bad “good” live players run at all the wrong times.  It basically tells him that I have exactly a set, and since that narrows my range too much, he is quite likely to call me down lightly.  This is no good.

I decide that a real show of stregnth here would be to just call his turn raise and then bet any river card.  That line begs for a call from a player like me, or at least it begs for a call from the player he thinks I am. 8% of the time a 5 is going to come and I am going to make my straight.  18% of the time a third diamond is going to come, and he could easily read my hand for a flush draw that took a stab on the turn at a pot that no one seemed to want.  12% of the time a Q or 4 is going to come and I am going to suckout sheepishly on AK or some middle pair.  Other times he is going to fold this hand that he already has indicated to me, given the way he played it thus far, that he does not like too much.  He may not be able to figure out what I have, but I thought this line would make him think that it sure looks like I have something and want him to call.

The river is the K of diamonds.  This is a good card for me, and I bet out after a slight pause.  The kind of pause that makes a player like him think that my pause before betting was me contemplating check/raising the river but then realizing he might check behind so I have to get value from my hand and bet it.  My bet wants to be called, and he knows it.  He groans and sits back in his chair, thinks for 10 seconds and then folds.