I Am An Idiot
Posted on 16th June, 2009 by Poker Bob
A large component of poker success is being able to recognize on what level your opponent is capable of thinking. The better you are at this, the better you will be at knowing what his hand is and how he will play it. Once you know what someone has and what they are going to do with it, they can never beat you.
Unfortunately, knowing your opponent very well is a tall order. If you are off even by a little bit, you can look like an idiot. I often look like an idiot.
My biggest weakness is that I tend to assume competent, winning players understand the game on a fairly high level. I am typically wrong.
The following hand was posted on a poker strategy forum and used as an example of how bad I am at poker. (The guy who beat me in the pot posted it.) It is just one of many examples of my idiocy.
I raise with two kings under the gun, 1 (maybe 2) people fold and a player calls.
The instant this happens, I begin to speculate about what this person has. With very poor opponents, I do not worry too much because they could have any two cards. This particular opponent, however, is a competent player so I am immediately confused by his play. Being the first caller here is incorrect. There is not a single hand that he can have here that he has not made an error with by just calling (as opposed to re-raising or folding). So now, as is often the case, I have to figure out where this player’s understanding of limit hold’em falls apart. I will get a better idea of what he has based on the flop and his flop action.
After he calls preflop, one other player calls and the blinds call.
The flop comes 754 of different suits.
The blinds check, I bet and the competent player now raises. This tells me a little more about his hand. I already know he screwed up something preflop, but now I have a better idea of what it is. The only hands that have connected with this board that a competent player can (incorrectly) have are 99, 88, 77, 66, 55, 44, 76s, 86s, 75s, 54s. He does not have KJ or some other nothing hand that he is trying to bluff with. He is not that level of stupid.
His preflop call indicates that he does not mind if players behind him come along and enter the pot. If he wanted to get rid of people, he would reraise preflop, thus putting tremendous pressure on the players yet to act. This tells me that he probably has a hand that can make a big hand and wants multiple opponents. Hands like 76s and 87s and 54s. These hands do not fare well against one or two opponents, but they do just fine when there are several players in the pot.
The other possibility is that he has a set of 7s, 5s or 4s. Allowing other players to enter the pot with any of these hands is a fairly large preflop error (especially given that by 3betting he can (a) secure position in the hand, (b) get 1.5sb of dead money in the pot by causing the blinds to fold and (c) isolate me with what may very well be the best hand), one that I am confident that he is not capable of making. So, I draw the line at “he’s bad enough to be the first caller with a suited connector, but not so bad as to do it with a pair.” I am comfortable with this “read” and play my hand accordingly.
I think he has either two pair, or some form of pair/straight draw combination.
After he raises the flop, the other caller 3bets, the blinds fold and I cap it. The competent player calls two more bets, (so he clearly likes his hand), and the other player calls.
The turn card is a 2. This is a good card for me and I have the lead in the hand, so I bet. The competent player now raises. This is bad news for me. I 100% do not have the best hand. He knows I have an overpair and raised the turn anyway. I am beat. Since he cannot have a set, I assume he has 2 pair of some kind, or maybe even a straight.
I now have to try to further pinpoint the level of bad this player is. He messed up his hand preflop, but how badly did he mess it up? To call preflop with 74 is horribly awful. He is not that bad so he cannot have that. Calling with 54s is bad, but not as bad. He might have that. He could have 75s, too. Hmmmm.
After he raises the turn, the button calls. I now know the button has some form of pair/straight draw combo, for he’d fold anything worse and 3bet anything better. So, I have him beat for sure. I call the turn raise hoping to river a K, but hating my hand.
The river is a 4, making the board 75424. This is a good card. I now beat the 75s that the competent player could have, and any straight draw that the button could have had missed.
I bet the river. The instant I did I regretted it. If my read is correct, then he either has (a) a busted up 2 pair (75s), a full house (54s) or a straight (86s). The only thing that happens if I bet the river is that he either folds or raises me. But if he raises me what can he have? He either is bluffing his 2 pair (75s), raising his full house (54s) for value, or raising his straight (86s) for value. None of these hands can call a 3bet from me, for if I 3bet this river I have exactly 77 or 44 (unless I am good enough to turn KK into a bluff here). If I am raised on this river I need to 3bet as a bluff, but he is not capable of folding a better hand. So, betting this river is extremely stupid.
He did indeed raise the river. The other player folded. I folded. He had 77. The one hand that I could never dream he would be bad enough to have, he had.
I am an idiot.